Editorials

A wild political ride February 11, 2008 - No reporter cited

Say this for Senator Barak Obama, the senator from Illinois has come out of nowhere to challenge the Clinton Machine and shake the foundations of the Democratic Party to its very foundations. Who would have thought a few months ago that an unknown black man (actually mixed race – his mother is white) could turn what was supposed to be a Hillary Clinton ordination as the party standard bearer into a dead heat?

Whether he wins or not (and I still think Hillary will ultimately get the nomination) Sen. Obama has run an effective campaign and now has the Clinton Camp on the ropes. His candidacy is the biggest story so far in a wild 2007-2008 race for the White House. Almost overnight, it seems, the Clintons are seen as tired and old, while Obama represents a younger generation and a yearning for change.

One aspect about the Obama campaign is that it has created an examination of race and gender and of intergenerational change in America. The Obama success is getting its strength from black voters and Generation Y, the demographic made up of those born after 1977. The former was expected as black voters spread the word to vote for the Homeboy. This is akin to the movement in the late 1960’s when blacks told their white brothers and sisters thanks but it time for them to leave the movement. Y is responding to their own call for change as they believe now is the time for the Baby Boomers to step aside.

John McCain, meanwhile, has the Republican nomination sewn up. And the other man from Hope, who was once governor of Arkansas, looks more and more like a vice presidential choice.

So far, about five million more voters have cast their ballots for Democrats than for Republicans in the primaries. Two polls mentioned by the talking heads Sunday morning showed that Obama would defeat McCain while one poll had McCain and Clinton in a dead heat. The other poll had McCain defeating Clinton.
But those polls are only a snapshot in time. They have little bearing on the fall.

If I was advising the respective camps here is what I would say:

Obama – change, change, change is your mantra. Keep saying it. This country is hungry for change after the failed presidency of George Bush. Find something nice to say about the Clintons, but don’t be afraid to attack them if attacked (and you can count on that). Shake down professional black athletes for campaign money but don’t make too many high profile appearances with them since you must have white votes in order to get the nomination.

Clinton – put your husband to raising money and tell him to shut up. Talk about the economy and remember your base of support is women and Hispanics.

You can attack Obama and say he is not ready, but your husband cannot. You have to make sure that Americans know that you are the candidate.

McCain – Start raising money and don’t stop. The nomination is yours and your fall strategy will be determined by who emerges from the Democrat’s bloodbath. Make peace with your enemies who call themselves conservatives, but don’t give away the store. They will have no where else to go. If Hillary gets the nomination, run against her husband, make him the divisive issue. If it is Obama, tell voters he is the most liberal senator in the senate.

At the end of the day, it promises to be a wild ride the rest of the year.

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